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Vassilev, Vassil, Donchev, Doncho, Tonchev, Demir and Василев, Васил (2021) Impact of false positives and false negatives on security risks in transactions under threat. In: 18th International Conference on Trust, Privacy and Security in Digital Business (TRUSTBUS 2021), 27-30 September 2021, Linz, Austria.
This paper presents a theoretical model, algorithms, and quantitative assessment of the impact of false positives and false negatives on the security risks during transaction processing. These two factors play an important role in the decisions to counteract potential threats. The assessment of their impact on the risks during transaction processing is based on analysis of the effect of varying the parameters of the optimal strategy, modeled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. Such an analysis is an important element of any cyber-security framework, which considers planning of active countermeasures for mitigating the risks and although developed primarily for controlling financial transactions, it is applicable to a wider range of problems in which the asynchronous events during the execution are caused by human errors, malfunctioning or external interventions.
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