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Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Gil-Alana, Luis A. (2010) Fractional cointegration in US term spreads. Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers, 2010 (05). pp. 1-9. ISSN 1749-3412
This note examines the stochastic properties of US term spreads with parametric and semiparametric fractional integration techniques. Since the observed data (rather than the estimated residuals from a cointegrating regression) are used for the analysis, standard methods can be applied. The results indicate that US Treasury maturity rates are I(1) in most cases, although the order of integration decreases with maturity. Further, mean reversion occurs for the 5, 7 and 10 year rates as well as for several term spreads, suggesting that the expectation hypothesis of the term structure is satisfied empirically.
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