Exploring the production of natural gas through the lenses of the ACEGES model

Voudouris, Vlasios, Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, Sedgwick, John, Rigby, Robert A., Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios and Jefferson, Michael (2014) Exploring the production of natural gas through the lenses of the ACEGES model. Energy Policy, 64. pp. 124-133. ISSN 0301-4215

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Abstract / Description

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated ultimate recoverable resources, the ‘Collective View’ and ‘Golden Age’ Scenarios suggest that the supply of natural gas is likely to meet the increasing demand for natural gas until at least 2035. The ‘Golden Age’ Scenario suggests significant ‘jumps’ of natural gas production – important for testing the resilience of long-term strategies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: probabilistic forecasts; natural gas depletion; ACEGES
Subjects: 500 Natural Sciences and Mathematics
500 Natural Sciences and Mathematics > 510 Mathematics
Department: School of Computing and Digital Media
Depositing User: Bal Virdee
Date Deposited: 09 May 2019 13:42
Last Modified: 22 Jul 2021 08:16
URI: https://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/4816


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