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You, Kefei and Sarantis, Nicholas (2009) An extended FABEER model for the equilibrium Chinese yuan/US dollar nominal exchange rate. Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers, 2009 (02). pp. 1-40. ISSN 1749-3412
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Abstract / Description
This paper applies for the first time an extended FABEER model to China, in order to investigate the determinants of the equilibrium nominal CNY/USD exchange rate and the misalignments of the Renminbi for both pre- and post-reform periods. We extend the FABEER model to include eleven of China’s main trade partners which account for 82% of its foreign trade. Second, we model and estimate the sustainable current account and the trade equations by employing a unique data set of consistent time series for economic fundamentals, trade-related variables and Euro variables since 1960. The results show that the sustainable and trend current accounts for China have been positive and rising during the post-reform period, accelerating particularly since the middle of 1990s. The nominal RMB was overvalued against the US dollar throughout the pre-reform period, but was undervalued and less volatile during the post-reform period. The undervaluation became more persistent and rising since 2000, but the misalignment rates are considerably smaller than those suggested by previous studies. Our empirical findings imply that a gradual increase in the flexibility of the exchange rate system rather than a sudden switch to a floating system would be more feasible for China over the near future.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers; CICM discussion papers; FABEER model; fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; nominal CNY/USD; China; pre- and post-reform periods |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Department: | Guildhall School of Business and Law |
| Depositing User: | Mary Burslem |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Apr 2015 11:43 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Apr 2015 11:32 |
| URI: | https://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/424 |
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