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Fayanju, Sunday Olusanya (2025) Climate change and food security: effects of rainfall variability on sustainable food security in the Sahel of northern Nigeria. Doctoral thesis, London Metropolitian University.
This study examines the effects of rainfall variability on sustainable food security in the semi-arid land of Borno State, northeastern Nigeria. The rural population in northeast Nigeria depends on agricultural resources for food security and employment, as about 80% of the population depends on agriculture. This makes the rural population vulnerable to climatic shocks, poverty and hunger. In addition to the issues of climate change, north-eastern Nigeria has suffered from intercommunal clashes and the Boko Haram insurgency, which has afflicted about 15 million civilians.
Both qualitative and quantitative data were used to analyse the household food security conditions, adaptation strategies and climate trends of the study area. Climate data analysis and statistical modelling were applied to examine precipitation patterns and food security outcomes. The household food security survey carried out among smallholder farmers revealed that the percentage of food-secure households decreases with additional members, and food-insecure households become more food insecure with additional members.
This study showed that age is significant in the food security conditions in Borno State; household heads aged 25 to 40 years are more food secure, while those above 40 years old are more likely to be less food secure. Again, households with a male as head are more food-secure than those with a female head. The incidence of severely food insecure (SFI) was prominent among household heads with no formal education (46.8%). About 99% of the household heads confirmed that they have not been affected by conflict. Food insecurity is more prominent among households that have experienced long periods of dry seasons and heat waves. Those who have access to credit tend to be more in the food-secure category, while households that do not have access to credit are food insecure.
Food insecurity coping strategies includes reliance on less preferred and less expensive foods, with 58.5% of the sampled households attested to using this strategy to cope food shortages, while 53% of the household relied on purchasing food on credit, 36.9% relied on limiting portion size at mealtimes, 31.2% depended on reduction of the number of meals eaten in a day, 25.6% coped by using restriction of consumption of adults for small children to eat, and 17.3% rely on borrowing food from a friend or relative. Farmers use crop and pastoral farming to diversify income and change crop variety to adapt to climate change.
The study revealed that farmers employ both rain-fed and irrigation farming, combining crop cultivation with pastoralism as a diversification strategy. This strategy is one of the risk-reduction measures employed by farmers in the study area. Evidence from this study implies dual attribution of precipitation changes to both natural forces and climate change, which emphasises the need for improvement in the understanding of local perceptions and scientific evidence.
The analysis of the SPI carried out shows precipitation anomaly, a standard departure from the mean over the 70-year series. Severe droughts were pronounced at all the weather stations considered during the first three decades of the series (1950-1959, 1960-1969 & 1970-1979), with unprecedented drought experiences that have never been witnessed before in observation records in 1970, 1971 and 1973.
Relationships between aggregate food production and precipitation were explored over the series (1992 to 2020). Results revealed that there was dramatic low production of food crops identified with below-average precipitation between 1992 and 1994, and food production began to rise from 1995 to 2002 and 2004 and 2006, surprisingly through below-mean precipitation. This surge can be attributed to an increase in aid delivery and other food supplies from international organisations because of the concerted focus on this region following Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) that resulted from insurgency attacks. The correlation relationship between major food crops and precipitation in Borno State was carried out, and results showed a strong relationship between SPI and food production.
The causal links between conflicts, climate change, and food security examined using multiple regression showed there is no statistically significant correlation between them. This study showed precipitation is low and variable while temperature is less variable over the period considered. Among the crop yield data, the values for beans/cowpeas are more consistent and show less variability compared to other crops. The assessment for multicollinearity performed on the data showed only SPI, temperature and bean yield data do not have a strong correlation.
In terms of policy implications, food production will be strengthened if both federal and state governments support rural communities through livelihood-enhancing activities that rebuild assets depleted by precipitation deficits, banditry, and terrorism. National food policy should prioritise sufficiency for all citizens, with implementation cascading down to the state and local levels.
Policies must address the impact of climate change, which has amplified natural disasters, economic risks, and social vulnerabilities. High levels of poverty and food scarcity have historically triggered crises in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, underscoring the urgency of resilient food systems. The food security strategy plan introduced by the state government, if properly implemented, will translate to food security.
Diversification is equally crucial. Farmers should be encouraged to cultivate a mix of rice, beans, sorghum, maize, and potatoes, given their comparable nutritional value. Policies must promote crop diversity, blending scientific expertise with local knowledge systems and integrating customary rules and inclusive governance with international best practice. A pluralistic, participatory approach will improve alignment between community realities and policy objectives, avoiding the pitfalls of purely technocratic reforms.
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