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Impact of oil prices on stock market performance

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Alao, Dolapo Olateru (2023) Impact of oil prices on stock market performance. Doctoral thesis, London Metropolitan University.

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Abstract

The study investigates the impact of oil prices on stock market performance in ten countries, including Canada. The volatility in oil prices and the accompanying swings in stock market performance raised the question of what, if any, is the relationship between these variables. The research seeks to address six strands of the phenomenon. The study evaluates the impact of oil prices on stock performance at the stock market’s aggregate and sector market levels. It establishes the effects of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance. Furthermore, it evaluates the role of the business cycle in the oil price shocks and stock market interface. Lastly, it examines the influence of oil prices on stock market performance in net oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The empirical investigation uses monthly data from January 2003 to December 2020 and quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2020Q4. Primary and secondary data were analysed using statistical tools and econometric modelling. The investigation employs the impulse response function, EGARCH and Markov switching models. The thesis concludes that the relationship between oil prices and stock market performance is time-varying, asymmetrical, heterogeneous and complex as several sector or country-specific factors drive the relationship. Specifically, the findings suggest that the response of the stock market sectors to oil price shocks differs substantially, depending on their degree of oil dependence and multiple transmission mechanisms. The findings further indicate that stock returns-generating processes in a net oil-exporting country like Canada exhibited a high degree of persistence in conditional variance, and the modelling of asymmetry was positive. Positive shocks from macroeconomic variables impact the country’s stock market more than negative shocks of the same magnitude. Two structural breaks are identified in the Canadian economy between 1990 and 2020. The data was further divided into two subsamples to reflect the two possible states for an economy, the bear and bull periods. Empirical analysis revealed that GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and oil prices are significant drivers of the country’s stock market performance in economic contraction. During the expansion era, all the variables considered in the study, excluding GDP, significantly drive stock market performance. Hence, oil prices and stock market relationships tend to improve more during the economic expansion period than during the contraction era. Further analysis affirmed that the impact of oil price shocks is only significant in the top two net oil-importing countries. These findings convey information that guides policymakers in formulating macroeconomic policies, investors and portfolio managers in risk diversification relating to decision-making and investment strategies. The study investigates the impact of oil prices on stock market performance in ten countries, including Canada. The volatility in oil prices and the accompanying swings in stock market performance raised the question of what, if any, is the relationship between these variables. The research seeks to address six strands of the phenomenon. The study evaluates the impact of oil prices on stock performance at the stock market’s aggregate and sector market levels. It establishes the effects of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance. Furthermore, it evaluates the role of the business cycle in the oil price shocks and stock market interface. Lastly, it examines the influence of oil prices on stock market performance in net oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The empirical investigation uses monthly data from January 2003 to December 2020 and quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2020Q4. Primary and secondary data were analysed using statistical tools and econometric modelling. The investigation employs the impulse response function, EGARCH and Markov switching models. The thesis concludes that the relationship between oil prices and stock market performance is time-varying, asymmetrical, heterogeneous and complex as several sector or country-specific factors drive the relationship. Specifically, the findings suggest that the response of the stock market sectors to oil price shocks differs substantially, depending on their degree of oil dependence and multiple transmission mechanisms. The findings further indicate that stock returns-generating processes in a net oil-exporting country like Canada exhibited a high degree of persistence in conditional variance, and the modelling of asymmetry was positive. Positive shocks from macroeconomic variables impact the country’s stock market more than negative shocks of the same magnitude. Two structural breaks are identified in the Canadian economy between 1990 and 2020. The data was further divided into two subsamples to reflect the two possible states for an economy, the bear and bull periods. Empirical analysis revealed that GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and oil prices are significant drivers of the country’s stock market performance in economic contraction. During the expansion era, all the variables considered in the study, excluding GDP, significantly drive stock market performance. Hence, oil prices and stock market relationships tend to improve more during the economic expansion period than during the contraction era. Further analysis affirmed that the impact of oil price shocks is only significant in the top two net oil-importing countries. These findings convey information that guides policymakers in formulating macroeconomic policies, investors and portfolio managers in risk diversification relating to decision-making and investment strategies.

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