Kellard, Neil, Dunis, Christian L. and Sarantis, Nicholas (2007) Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation. Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers, 2007 (01). pp. 1-32. ISSN 1749-3412
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Abstract / Description
Almost all relevant literature has characterized implied volatility as a biased predictor of realized volatility. This paper provides new time series techniques to assess the validity of this finding within a foreign exchange market context. We begin with the empirical observation that the fractional order of volatility is often found to have confidence intervals that span the stationary/non-stationary boundary. However, no existing fractional cointegration test has been shown to be robust to both regions. Therefore, a new test for fractional cointegration is developed and shown to be robust to the relevant orders of integration. Secondly, employing a dataset that includes the relatively new Euro markets, it is shown that implied and realized volatility are fractionally cointegrated with a slope coefficient of unity. Moreover, the non-standard asymptotic distribution of estimators when using fractionally integrated data is overcome by employing a bootstrap procedure in the frequency domain. Strikingly, tests then show that implied volatility is an unbiased predictor of realized volatility!
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers; CICM discussion papers; market efficiency; traded volatility; narrow band least squares; fractional cointegration; bootstrap |
Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
Department: | Guildhall School of Business and Law |
Depositing User: | Mary Burslem |
Date Deposited: | 23 Apr 2015 08:48 |
Last Modified: | 08 May 2018 14:22 |
URI: | https://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/487 |
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