Financial contagion : evolutionary optimisation of a multinational agent-based model

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Serguieva, Antoaneta and Wu, Hao (2008) Financial contagion : evolutionary optimisation of a multinational agent-based model. Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers, 2008 (18). pp. 1-26. ISSN 1749-3412

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Abstract

Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during a crisis are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate crisis transmission in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although the phenomenon has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise crossmarket linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable in developing appropriate risk management strategies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers; CICM discussion papers; financial contagion; minority/majority game; agent-based model; evolutionary parameter optimisation
Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Department: Guildhall School of Business and Law
Depositing User: Mary Burslem
Date Deposited: 23 Apr 2015 08:27
Last Modified: 23 Apr 2015 08:27
URI: http://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/486

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