Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets : a multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis

Beirne, John and Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne and Spagnolo, Nicola (2009) Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets : a multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis. Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers, 2009 (17). pp. 1-15. ISSN 1749-3412

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Abstract

This paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of possible transmission channels: spillovers in mean returns, volatility, and cross-market GARCH-in-mean effects. Hypotheses about the importance of different channels are tested. The results suggest that spillovers from regional and global markets are present in the vast majority of EMEs. However, the nature of crossmarket linkages varies across countries and regions. While spillovers in mean returns dominate in emerging Asia and Latin America, spillovers in variance appear to play a key role in emerging Europe. There is also some evidence of cross-market GARCH-in-mean effects. The relative importance of regional and global spillovers varies too, with global spillovers dominating in Asia, and regional spillovers in Latin America and the Middle East.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers; CICM discussion papers; volatility spillovers; contagion; stock markets; emerging markets
Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Department: Guildhall School of Business and Law
Depositing User: Mary Burslem
Date Deposited: 21 Apr 2015 10:56
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2015 10:56
URI: http://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/449

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