Business cycles, international trade and capital flows : evidence from Latin America

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Girardi, Alessandro (2012) Business cycles, international trade and capital flows : evidence from Latin America. Centre for EMEA Banking, Finance and Economics Working Paper Series, 2012 (38). pp. 1-34.

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Abstract

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within the LA region there are considerable differences between countries, success stories coexisting with extremely vulnerable economies. They also show that the LA region as a whole is largely dependent on external developments, especially in the years after the great recession of 2008 and 2009. The trade channel appears to be the most important source of business cycle co-movement, whilst capital flows are found to have a limited role, especially in the very short run.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Centre for EMEA Banking, Finance and Economics Working Paper Series; international business cycle; Latin America; VAR models; trade and financial linkages
Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
300 Social sciences > 380 Commerce, communications & transportation
600 Technology > 650 Management & auxiliary services
Department: Guildhall School of Business and Law
Depositing User: Mary Burslem
Date Deposited: 17 Apr 2015 10:55
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2015 08:34
URI: http://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/397

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