Short-term price overreactions : identification, testing, exploitation

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Gil-Alana, Luis A. and Plastun, Alex (2014) Short-term price overreactions : identification, testing, exploitation. Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers, 2014 (10). pp. 1-29. ISSN 1749-3412

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Abstract

This paper examines short-term price reactions after one-day abnormal price changes and whether they create exploitable profit opportunities in various financial markets. A t-test confirms the presence of overreactions and also suggests that there is an "inertia anomaly", i.e. after an overreaction day prices tend to move in the same direction for some time. A trading robot approach is then used to test two trading strategies aimed at exploiting the detected anomalies to make abnormal profits. The results suggest that a strategy based on counter-movements after overreactions does not generate profits in the FOREX and the commodity markets, but it is profitable in the case of the US stock market. By contrast, a strategy exploiting the "inertia anomaly" produces profits in the case of the FOREX and the commodity markets, but not in the case of the US stock market.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Centre for International Capital Markets discussion papers; CICM discussion papers; efficient market hypothesis; EMH; anomaly; anomalies; overreaction hypothesis; abnormal returns; contrarian strategy; trading strategy; trading robot; t-test
Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Department: Guildhall School of Business and Law
Depositing User: Mary Burslem
Date Deposited: 16 Apr 2015 13:42
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2015 11:43
URI: http://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/id/eprint/378

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